Our Success and Hit Rates (various Categories)

                              

Hit rate for result tendency (home victory/ draw/ away victory) of all matches at the World Cup 2014 in Brazil (2014-07-13):

61% of all matches have been predicted with the correct trend for the final result (statistical chance would be roughly 37%: 33% for group matches, 50% for finals).

                              

Hit rate of all matches by group at the World Cup 2014 in Brazil (2014-07-13):

All numbers are percentages. Total ratio for all group matches: 52% (25 of 48). Statistical chance would be roughly 33% (brown comparison columns). Best prediction quality for group F (83%), worst for group D (0%).

Benchmark comparison for group match outcomes predicted before the beginning of the tournament: Our DataMiningSoccer model (52%) outperformed the models of Bloomberg (44%) and Goldman Sachs (38%).

                              

Hit rate of predicted group winners at the World Cup 2014 in Brazil (2014-07-13):

5 of 8 group winners (63%) were correctly predicted (statistical chance would be 25%).

                              

Hit rate of predicted qualifiers for the knockout stage at the World Cup 2014 in Brazil (2014-07-13):

10 of 16 group qualifiers (63%) for the second round were correctly predicted (statistical chance would be 50%).

                              

Hit rate for winners and result tendency (home victory/ draw/ away victory) of all finals during the knockout stage at the World Cup 2014 in Brazil (2014-07-13):

Basis of the analysis: the winner after 90 minutes or possibly after extra time or penalty shootouts. 88% of all finals during the knockout stage (14 of 16) were predicted with the correct winner (statistical chance would be 50%).

Basis of the analysis: the result after 90 minutes. 44% of all finals during the knockout stage (7 of 16) were predicted with the correct trend (statistical chance would be 33%).

                              

Portfolio development of a (virtual) fund which starts at a fund value of 100 Euros at the beginning of the tournament and which bets 1 Euro for each match result predicted by DataMiningSoccer:

Date: 2014-07-13 | Matches: 64 | Value: 111,30 Euros | Yield: 11,30% in 32 days (=127,1% p.a.)

The betting odds used are averaged values of different betting agencies. The basis is always the score after 90 minutes – even for the finals during the knockout stage. If a forecast is wrong the fund loses the wager of 1 Euro. In case of a correct prediction the portfolio wins the value of the betting odd deducted by the wager (i.e. for a betting odd of e.g. 1.5 the fund gains 0.5 Euros).

                              

You can get to the overview of all forecasted and actual results of the World Cup matches in Brazil on our page [World Championship 2014].