Our Hit Rates (various Categories)
For the [Serie A 2015/16] we have prepared a couple of hit rates for you regarding different prediction categories.
Hit rate by matchday since the 1st until matchday 38: 183 out of 380 / 48% (“by chance” would be ø ~33%). The success rates by matchday:
Hit rate by team after matchday 38 of the Serie A 2015/16 (“by chance” would be ø ~33%):
Hit rate in dependency of our statistical confidence factor DMS-C until matchday 38 of the Serie A 2015/16 (“by chance” would be ø ~33%):
DMS-C > 60%: 35 out of 51 / 69%
DMS-C 45-60%: 78 out of 141 / 55%
DMS-C < 45%: 70 out of 188 / 37%
Hit rate by predicted match outcome until matchday 38 of the Serie A 2015/16 (“by chance” would be ø ~33%):
Predicted victory of home team: 103 out of 167 / 62%
Predicted victory of away team: 48 out of 98 / 49%
Predicted draw: 32 out of 115 / 28%
Hit rate by table positions in the Serie A 2015/16 from matchday 2 to matchday 38 (“by chance” would be ø ~33%):
For teams within the table positions 1-6: 122 out of 222 / 55%
For teams within the table positions 7-14: 138 out of 296 / 47%
For teams within the table positions 15-20: 98 out of 222 / 44%
Hit rate for the exact match result until matchday 38: 46 out of 380 / 12%.
For 133 out of 380 matches (35%) we missed the exact match result by just 1 single goal.
Sum (perfect forecast + missed by just 1 goal): 179 out of 380 matches (47%).
Opposite result (prediction of a victory of team A, but team B wins – or vice versa): 51 out of 380 matches (13%). Less is better!
Hit rate by weekday until matchday 38 of the Serie A 2015/16 (“by chance” would be ø ~33%):
Friday matches: 4 out of 5 / 80%
Saturday matches: 37 out of 74 / 50%
Sunday matches: 108 out of 232 / 47%
Other weekdays: 34 out of 69 / 49%
Hit rate tops & flops until matchday 38 of the Serie A 2015/16 (“by chance” would be ø ~33%):
Best forecast by matchday: 8 out of 10 / 80%
Worst forecast by matchday: 2 out of 10 / 20%
Here you can find our [statistics by team].
And here you get to our forecast for the [Serie A 2015/16].