Our prediction for the group matches had ups and downs. Let’s start with a few positive aspects:

• 5 of 8 group winners were correctly predicted based on statistics
• the second position of Algeria, which was considered as a surprise by many, was part of our forecast
• in total 10 of 16 qualifiers for the knockout matches correspond to our predictions
• 5 of 6 predicted match outcomes in group F are correct
• in 3 of 8 groups all table positions correspond exactly to our forecasts
• with 52% correct match outcome predictions for all group matches (calculated before the beginning of the World Cup 2014) our model outperformed those of Goldman Sachs (38%) and Bloomberg (44%):

At the same time, there were several surprises which reduced our hit rates, but – and this is much more important! – these made the matches of this World Cup so interesting:

• in group D, all predictions were completely wrong: not a single match outcome is in line with our prediction – and even the table looks exactly the other way as our forecast
• our predicted statistical World Champion Spain was already out after 2 group matches – super;-)

Tomorrow we provide you with the statistical predictions for the knockout matches.

Click here for all our [hit rates] for the 2014 World Cup.

You can of course still get to the overview of all forecasted and actual results of the World Cup matches in Brazil on our page [World Championship 2014].