Our Hit Rates (various Categories)
For the [1.Bundesliga 2015/16] we have prepared a couple of hit rates for you regarding different prediction categories.
Hit rate by matchday since the 1st until matchday 34: 137 out of 306 / 45% (“by chance” would be ø ~33%). The success rates by matchday:
Hit rate by team after matchday 34 of the 1.Bundesliga 2015/16 (“by chance” would be ø ~33%):
Hit rate in dependency of our statistical confidence factor DMS-C until matchday 34 of the 1.Bundesliga 2015/16 (“by chance” would be ø ~33%):
DMS-C > 60%: 29 out of 36 / 81%
DMS-C 45-60%: 46 out of 89 / 52%
DMS-C < 45%: 62 out of 181 / 34%
Hit rate by predicted match outcome until matchday 34 of the 1.Bundesliga 2015/16 (“by chance” would be ø ~33%):
Predicted victory of home team: 77 out of 132 / 58%
Predicted victory of away team: 31 out of 62 / 50%
Predicted draw: 29 out of 112 / 26%
Hit rate by table positions in the 1.Bundesliga 2015/16 from matchday 2 to matchday 34 (“by chance” would be ø ~33%):
For teams within the table positions 1-6: 99 out of 198 / 50%
For teams within the table positions 7-12: 82 out of 198 / 41%
For teams within the table positions 13-18: 83 out of 198 / 42%
Hit rate for the exact match result until matchday 34: 34 out of 306 / 11%.
For 117 out of 306 matches (38%) we missed the exact match result by just 1 single goal.
Sum (perfect forecast + missed by just 1 goal): 151 out of 306 matches (49%).
Opposite result (prediction of a victory of team A, but team B wins – or vice versa): 44 out of 306 matches (14%). Less is better!
Hit rate by weekday until matchday 34 of the 1.Bundesliga 2015/16 (“by chance” would be ø ~33%):
Friday matches: 12 out of 29 / 41%
Saturday matches: 90 out of 195 / 46%
Sunday matches: 27 out of 63 / 43%
Other weekdays: 8 out of 19 / 42%
Hit rate tops & flops until matchday 34 of the 1.Bundesliga 2015/16 (“by chance” would be ø ~33%):
Best forecast by matchday: 7 out of 9 / 78%
Worst forecast by matchday: 1 out of 9 / 11%
Here you can find our [statistics by team].
And here you get to our forecast for the [1.Bundesliga 2015/16].
